Why a 70:30 India-global portfolio makes sense in a changing world, Subho Moulik decodes

As global markets outperform India, diversification is gaining urgency. Subho Moulik explains why a 70:30 India global portfolio improves risk adjusted returns, reduces concentration risk, and provides access to long term global growth themes such as AI, defence, and quantum computing.

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[Why a 70:30 India-global portfolio makes sense in a changing world, Subho Moulik decodes]
ETMarkets.com
A 70:30 India global portfolio can help investors navigate currency risk, reduce concentration, and tap into global growth themes beyond domestic equities.

As Indian equity markets delivered modest returns in 2025 compared with stronger gains in global markets, the debate around portfolio diversification has moved sharply into focus. With currency depreciation, evolving global growth drivers, and transformative themes like AI, defence, and quantum computing reshaping investing opportunities, sticking to a purely domestic strategy may no longer be enough.

In this context, a balanced approach that combines home market familiarity with global exposure is becoming increasingly relevant. Speaking to Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Subho Moulik, Founder and CEO of Appreciate, explains why a 70:30 India–global portfolio can help investors improve risk adjusted returns, reduce concentration risk, and participate in the world’s most powerful long term growth trends in a rapidly changing global landscape.

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Kshitij Anand: If you look at the data for 2025, the Nifty delivered around 10%, while US markets were well ahead with returns of about 16%. Do you think some Indian investors may have felt they missed the rally? And if you look at returns in dollar terms, which are slightly worse for Indian investors, what are your views on that?

Subho Moulik: If you are an Indian investor with no diversification, you essentially saw your portfolio go up by about 10%, while the US market delivered almost double that when you include currency, roughly around 22%. The rise in US portfolios is not a one year story. If you look at the past few years, they have been bumper years for US investors.

For full disclosure, my portfolio is about 70 to 80% global and around 20% India. And of course, we are in the business of democratising global investing, so I do have a bias. But if you look at the numbers, it is a very rational decision for Indian investors to allocate money not just to India, but also globally.

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On timing, I think there is still plenty of room left in the rally. Historically, the average bull market since World War II lasted about seven to eight years. There have also been bull markets that ran for as long as 15 to 16 years. The current bull market is well short of those durations. No one knows when a bull market will end. Anyone who claims they do, well, best of luck to them. I certainly do not know. But if you look at historical averages and current fundamentals, there should still be room for this bull market to continue.

So, I do not think timing is the issue. The real question is about themes. What are you investing in, and why you did not diversify earlier. Let me ask you a question. We are all aware of the Nifty 50. If I told you the Nifty 50 exists, but you can only invest in two Nifty 50 stocks for the rest of your life, how would you react?

Kshitij Anand: In that case, I think that may have worked two decades ago, but things are changing now. No company survives indefinitely, and even within the Nifty 50 there is constant churn. If I take your point, yes, if I pick a Nifty 50 stock today, there is always a possibility it may not be part of the index six months down the line.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. If someone told you there are 50 stocks, but you can only invest in two, your first reaction would be why would I only invest in two stocks? You would want more choice. This ties back to the point you made earlier. India is a very important market from a future perspective, but it still represents only about 4%, or even less, of the global market. Therefore, as an investor, the rational choice is to think about diversification. How to allocate capital in a way that improves returns while reducing overall risk. That is what investors should be doing.

I do not think timing is an issue at all. In fact, if there is a sudden crash, say something completely unexpected happens in the next month and markets correct sharply, that would be a fabulous time to buy.

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. We have seen that happen multiple times in the past.

Subho Moulik: Exactly.

Kshitij Anand: In fact, there is another dilemma Indian investors might be facing. In terms of GDP growth, India is likely to deliver around 7% in 2026–27, while global growth is expected to be around 2.5 to 3%. However, the scale of the economy differs significantly between the US and India, and even a 2.5 to 3% growth rate for the US is considered quite strong. Still, many Indian investors tend to focus on the headline numbers, 7% versus 3%. Could you help investors understand how to translate this into portfolio decisions, especially when investing abroad?

Subho Moulik: I will address that. This comparison is a fallacy, a red herring, and I will explain why. When you invest in the US, you are not investing only in US focused or US centric companies. Let us take an example from beverages. Whether or not you believe that the beverage market in India will grow rapidly, let us assume for a moment that it grows in line with GDP. It is a mass consumer segment and should broadly follow the economic cycle. Now, who do you think benefits from the growth of India’s beverage industry?

Kshitij Anand: US companies.

Subho Moulik: Coca Cola and Pepsi.

Kshitij Anand: Pepsi, and they are all US based companies.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. They are all based in the US. So, when you invest in US stocks, you are not necessarily investing in the US economy. Today, most global multinationals are listed in the US, and therefore, investing in US markets is effectively a bet on global growth.

What investors should increasingly think about is which sectors to invest in and where the global leaders in those sectors are located. To continue with the beverage example, if you believe beverages are a compelling investment theme, the global leaders in that space are listed in the US. If we move to a more realistic example, the leaders in semiconductors, companies like Nvidia, are also listed in the US. The leaders in genetics are largely in the US as well, with some presence in Europe and China. In defence, the dominant players are again largely US based. In emerging areas like quantum computing, which could become as exciting as, or even more exciting than, AI, there is once again a strong presence in the US and China.

So, while India has strong growth prospects, as an investor you already carry significant home country risk. You live in India, your home is in India, and your job is in India. From a portfolio perspective, diversification is important so that if something goes wrong domestically, at least part of your investments is insulated.

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