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Iran after Khamenei: What's next and what it means for the country?
Khamenei assumed power following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, inheriting a revolutionary state still consolidating itself.
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Iran after Khamenei: What's next and what it means for the country?
Lee Ying Shan@in/ying-shan-lee@LeeYingshan
WATCH LIVE
Key Points
- Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been killed in a joint military strike.
- Khamenei assumed power following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989.
- Killing Khamenei is not, in itself, 'regime change,' one analyst told CNBC.
In this article
- LMT
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- UAMY
A woman holds an illustration depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as others wave Iranian national flags during a demonstration in support of the government and against US and Israeli strikes outside a mosque in Tehran on February 28, 2026.
Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images
The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sets in motion a formal succession process that could have significant implications for the country's political stability, sanctions outlook and already strained economy.
Khamenei was killed in a joint military strike by Israel and the United States, Iranian state media confirmed. At the time of his death, Khamenei, 86, was at his office within his residence, Iran's Fars News Agency said on Telegram.
He assumed power following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, inheriting a revolutionary state still consolidating itself after the Iran-Iraq war.
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Khamenei was not seen as the obvious successor. He lacked the religious credentials required by the constitution at the time, Karim Sadjadpour, a policy analystat the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted in his study on Khamenei.
Just months before Khomeini's death, the constitution was revised to state that the Leader needed only to be an expert in Islamic jurisprudence with political and managerial ability — a change that enabled Khamenei's elevation.
Over time, the office of the supreme leader consolidated authority over Iran's key institutions. While presidents changed through elections, Khamenei retained control over the military, judiciary, state broadcasting and major strategic decisions (Article 110).
Khamenei championed a "resistance economy" to promote self-sufficiency amid Western sanctions, remained wary of engagement with the West, and cracked down on critics who argued his security-first approach stifled reform.
His rule faced repeated tests. In 2009, mass protests over alleged election fraud were met with a harsh crackdown. In 2022, demonstrations erupted over women's rights. A serious challenge emerged in late December 2025, when economic grievances spiraled into nationwide unrest, with some protesters openly demanding the Islamic Republic's overthrow.
What's next for Iran?
"Khamenei is dead. This is the best day of my life. This is a glorious day for Iran," said Masoud Ghodrat Abadi, an Iranian engineer now based in the United States who left Iran at age 27.
"I believe his death could mark the beginning of a new chapter in our nation's history ... In the long run, I hope this moment will prove transformative," he told CNBC.
Similar sentiment surfaced across social media platforms following his death, where Iranians were shown to take to the streets, celebrating, according to the New York Times.
However, analysts warned that jubilation does not equal transformation.
"Taking out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not the same as regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the regime," the Council on Foreign Relations noted following his passing, limiting the prospects for immediate political or economic transformation.
The death of Khamenei ushers in only the second leadership transition since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, a moment that the CFR described as historically significant but deeply uncertain in its outcome.
While some Iranians have expressed hope that a leadership change could ease repression and economic isolation, the CFR said the most likely succession outcomes do not suggest meaningful political or economic liberalization in the immediate aftermath of a transition.
"Leadership change in Iran could take three primary trajectories—regime continuity, military takeover, or regime collapse," the CFR reported. However, the think tank warned that none of these near-term scenarios envisage a positive transformation in the year or so after transition.
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📄 sadjadpour_iran_final2.pdf