How to Change the World

Does power truly flow from the barrel of a gun? Pop culture and conventional history often teach us that violence is the most effective way to produce change. But is that common assumption actually true? Political scientist Erica Chenoweth, who has studied more than 100 years of revolutions and insurrections, says the answer is counterintuitive.

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How to Change the World

By Hidden Brain Staff

/ March 21, 2022

Does power truly flow from the barrel of a gun? Pop culture and conventional history often teach us that violence is the most effective way to produce change. But is that common assumption actually true? Political scientist Erica Chenoweth, who has studied more than 100 years of revolutions and insurrections, says the answer is counterintuitive.

Additional Resources

BOOKS:

Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know, by Erica Chenoweth, Oxford University Press, 2021.

The Role of External Support in Nonviolent Campaigns: Poisoned Chalice or Holy Grail?, by Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, monograph for the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict, 2021.

Civil Action and the Dynamics of Violence, by Jordi Munoz and Eva Anduiza, Journal of Peace Research, 2019.

State Repression and Nonviolent Resistance, by Erica Chenoweth, Evan Perkoski, and Sooyeon Kang, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2017

Can Structural Conditions Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings?, by Erica Chenoweth and Jay Ulfelder, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2015.

GRAB BAG:

Erica Chenoweth’s recent opinion piece in the Washington Post about non violent resistance in Ukraine

Erica Chenoweth’s TEDxBoulder talk on the success of nonviolent civil resistance.

Transcript

*The transcript below may be for an earlier version of this episode.
Our transcripts are provided by various partners and may contain errors or deviate slightly from the audio.*

Shankar Vedantam:This is Hidden Brain. I'm Shankar Vedantam. "To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." Those are the words of the first U.S. President, George Washington in his inaugural state of the union address. George Washington knew a thing or two about war. Over four decades of military service, he took part in a number of bloody battles. Among them, was the Battle of Trenton, in which American colonists battle German soldiers paid to fight for the British. The battle was depicted in the 2000 film, The Crossing. In scene after scene, the Americans thrust their bayonets into the Germans. They kill others with cannon and musket fire. Their enemies repeatedly try to regroup, but are forced to flee. Finally, the Germans realizing they cannot win, kneel in surrender.The Crossing:[foreign language 00:01:06].Shankar Vedantam:These scenes, like many depictions of war, can be hard to watch. But they also force us to face uncomfortable questions. Doesn't Washington's war and countless others like it, prove that the realists are right? That violence is the most effective means to change. That power does flow from the barrel of a gun.This week on Hidden Brain, the surprising truth about what actually produces radical change and the profound implications for individuals and nations.Many of us watch movies depicting war or TV shows where detectives saved the day by bursting in on the bad guys, guns blazing. These sorts of stories are based on an assumption: using force might be unpleasant, it might even be immoral - but it's highly effective, the surest way to get what you want. As war broke out in Eastern Europe this year, we've been reminded again of the brutal effectiveness of violence. At Harvard University, political scientist Erica Chenoweth studies whether this common assumption is true when it comes to mass movements for change. Erica Chenoweth, welcome to Hidden Brain.Erica Chenoweth:Thank you so much, Shankar.Shankar Vedantam:Erica, I want to look at your own journey into this area of research. When you were a kid, your mom bought you a book called Zlata's Diary. You were enthralled by this book. What was it about?Erica Chenoweth:Basically, this is the story written by Zlata Filipović about what it was like living as a child under siege, during the siege of Sarajevo. As a 13 year old kid, I couldn't help but be moved by the experiences of being a kid that were not going to be available to her, her friends and others because of the war.Shankar Vedantam:I mean, in many ways, it's like the fascination that many people have had over the years with The Diary of Anne Frank. It gives you a window into what it's like to go through the experience of war. Later on, I understand you became really interested in the history of World War I. You'd go to the public library with your family and you loved a book about World War I Medal of Honor winners. What was the appeal of the book?Erica Chenoweth:Well, I think I was always really fascinated with World War I. I can't actually remember the origins of the fascination to be honest, but from the time I can remember, I was looking at military history books and one that really caught my eye was the one about medal of honor winners - in part because it described these situations of heroism and courage but also these situations of just horrific war time conditions, trench warfare and the types of experiences that people had just serving in the war, on and off the battlefield.Shankar Vedantam:As an undergrad, I understand you took a military science class. So it sounds like you were developing a real interest here in military history.Erica Chenoweth:Yes. I was interested in potentially serving in the army after graduating from college and they had an ROTC program, which I didn't eventually enroll in, but I did take the military science course to find out whether it was a path for me.Shankar Vedantam:The September 11th terrorist attacks took place during Erica's senior year in college. They prompted Erica to go to graduate school to better understand the nature of terrorism.Erica Chenoweth:And there was a really influential article and later book published by a scholar named Robert Pape, who's at the University of Chicago. And he basically argued that suicide terrorism was on the increase because it was a remarkably effective technique. And there was a debate about this and another really important article instead of arguments was emerging from a fellow named Max Abrahms. And he was arguing that actually looking beyond just suicide terrorism, if you look at terrorist events and you look at sort of campaigns of terrorism or terrorist groups, and you look at how many of those groups have actually achieved what they said they wanted, it's a remarkably low number. And so he was saying that terrorism was not effective. And then there was this other political scientist saying that suicide terrorism in particular is very effective. So there was sort of a vibrant debate happening in the field. And my research was really on the question of why it is that people use terrorism in democracies specifically, where there are so many other methods of political expression that are available. So that's sort of where I was in the mid-2000s as well.Shankar Vedantam:Would it be fair to say that your broad belief at this point was that power indeed does flow, from the barrel of a gun, from your interest in military history and your knowledge of wars, past and present?Erica Chenoweth:Yeah, I think that's right. And I think I would qualify it somewhat just by sa

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